"Rat race" competition in prices, operating rate of PV frame profiles continues to face pressure [SMM Analysis]

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SMM News on July 17:

PV aluminum extrusion: Sample enterprises reported a decline in orders and a further drop in processing fees, compressing their profitability and leading to a pullback in operating rates. According to an SMM survey, some extrusion enterprises are only involved in a small number of PV orders, while some have stopped accepting PV orders or are gradually exiting the field. Others are choosing to transform, retaining only the solar panel mounting bracket business and abandoning frame production. Some enterprises stated that the "volume discount" model is not a long-term solution. They still believe in the healthy and long-term development of the PV extrusion industry and expect the industry to return to a track of healthy competition.

Raw material prices: During the period (July 14, 2025 - July 17, 2025), the center of the average spot price of spot aluminum shifted downward. The weekly average price of SMMA00 was 20,517.5 yuan/mt, down 0.79% MoM from the previous weekly average. In the short term, aluminum prices will exhibit a pattern of being in the doldrums, with the core logic being strong expectations for inventory buildup amid the release of supply increments and the suppression of demand during the off-season. Currently, there are obvious signs of long position reduction in SHFE aluminum, and it is expected that SHFE aluminum will trade within the range of 20,150-20,550 yuan/mt next week, with a core resistance level at 20,500 yuan/mt and support levels at 20,100-20,200 yuan/mt. LME aluminum will fluctuate within the range of $2,520-$2,600/mt, with high expectations for continued inventory buildup at overseas delivery warehouses. LME aluminum inventory will continue to accumulate, exerting certain pressure on prices.

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